23 February 2025: - For years, the West has viewed India as a potential counterbalance to China’s growing geopolitical influence. However, recent developments indicate that India may no longer be a reliable ally in this strategy. From its inability to defend its own borders to internal unrest and a weakening economy, India’s position as a counterweight to China is increasingly in doubt. Here’s why the West is likely to reconsider its partnership with India:

1. Inability to Defend Its Borders

One of the fundamental requirements for being a regional power is the ability to safeguard one's own territory. India has failed in this regard. China has occupied approximately 40,000 square kilometers of Indian territory in the Ladakh region and has even gone so far as to create two new counties in this occupied land. Despite repeated diplomatic engagements and military stand-offs, India has been unable to reclaim its lost land. If India cannot defend its own borders against China, how can it be expected to stand up for the West in any future conflicts? This failure exposes India's military limitations and calls into question its effectiveness as a strategic partner.

2. Internal Conflicts and Separatist Movements

India is dealing with widespread internal conflicts that threaten its stability. Multiple states and regions, including Punjab, Kashmir, and the northeastern states, have active separatist movements seeking independence from India. In Punjab, the Khalistan movement continues to push for a separate Sikh state. In Kashmir, decades of unrest persist despite heavy military presence. The northeastern states, such as Nagaland and Manipur, have long-standing demands for autonomy or independence. These internal divisions weaken India’s ability to project power externally and make it an unreliable ally in any strategic confrontation with China.

3. Slowing Economic Growth

For years, India was hailed as an emerging economic powerhouse, but that narrative is now shifting. India’s economic growth has slowed significantly, plagued by high unemployment, sluggish industrial growth, and policy missteps. While China continues to dominate global trade and technological advancements, India remains stuck in bureaucratic inefficiencies and protectionist policies that hinder foreign investment. A slow-growing economy means limited resources for military expansion and strategic initiatives, further diminishing its role as a credible counterweight to China.

4. Human Rights Violations and Treatment of Minorities

India's treatment of minorities, particularly Muslims, Christians, and Dalits, has raised serious concerns internationally. The controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir, and frequent incidents of mob violence against minorities highlight India's worsening human rights record. Reports of mass arrests, media suppression, and political persecution have tarnished India’s democratic image. Western nations, particularly those that champion human rights, may find it increasingly difficult to justify an alliance with a country accused of systemic discrimination and repression.

5. Transnational Repression and Attacks on Sovereignty of Five Eyes Countries

India’s authoritarian tendencies are no longer confined within its borders. Recently, India has been accused of engaging in transnational repression, targeting dissenters and political activists abroad. The Five Eyes alliance nations (United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) have reported multiple incidents of India interfering in their domestic affairs. The killing of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, allegedly orchestrated by Indian intelligence, has led to a major diplomatic crisis. The West is now waking up to the reality that India’s actions may not align with democratic principles, making it an untrustworthy partner in global affairs.

Conclusion

The West’s initial bet on India as a counterweight to China was based on flawed assumptions about its military capabilities, economic potential, and democratic values. India’s inability to defend its own borders, internal instability, economic slowdown, human rights violations, and aggressive transnational actions are all indicators that it may no longer be the strategic ally the West once hoped for. As a result, the West is likely to reassess its partnership with India and seek alternative strategies to contain China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.